عنوان لاتین:
شاخه علمی:
پایان‌نامه اقتصاد
گرایش علمی:
معارف اسلامی
قالب اجرا:
پایان‌نامه غیرصنعتی
کارفرما:
استاد راهنما:
مسعود درخشان
استاد مشاور:
علی امامی میبدی
دانشگاه:
دانشگاه امام صادق
مقطع تحصیلی:
پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد
سال دفاع:
۱۳۹۰
کلیدواژه‌ها:
اوپک, نفت, اقتصاد سیاسی نفت
چکیده:
This dissertation, which consists of 6 Parts and 10 Chapters, deals with OPEC’s economic behavior within the political economy of petroleum. After introducing the questions and hypotheses in Part 1, the theoretical foundation is discussed in Part 2, which consists of 3 Chapters. The analysis of the future behavior of OPEC requires supply and demand forecasts for conventional and unconventional oil (mainly heavy and extra-heavy oil, shale oil, oil sands and tar sands) as well as renewable energies. The estimates of the future development of global energy market as provided by OPEC, International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration are the subject matter of Part 3 (in 2 Chapters), which includes the analysis of assumptions and key variables in the given scenarios. An examination of the outlook for OPEC crude oil production provided by OPEC, IEA and EIA is presented in Part 4 (in 3 Chapters). The production potentials in Persian Gulf producers as well as selected non-OPEC producers together with the challenges facing them are also studied. The analysis of OPEC’s role in the future development of global energy depends firstly, on the availability of the production outlook from unconventional oil and secondly, on the impact which the production from these resources may have on the conventional oil market. This analysis is presented in Part 5 of this dissertation (in 2 Chapters). A brief review of the status of renewable energies in the future development of global energy market is also given in this Part. The increase in conventional oil production in non-OPEC major countries by 2030 is not of a considerable importance. Production from unconventional oil reserves and renewable energies is a function of efficacious surge in crude oil price as well as technical progress. Hence it is shown that the dependency of industrialized and developing countries to OPEC’s production will continue. Strengthening OPEC’s long-term and strategic planning and appropriate initiatives for technical, financial and economic cooperation amongst NOCs in member countries together with long-term collaborations with IOCs towards the realization of the aforementioned goals are the key policy recommendations given in Part 6, which also incorporates a summary and conclusions.