عنوان لاتین:
The Effects of Changes in Natural Gas Prices on Industrial Production in Iran
شاخه علمی:
پایان‌نامه اقتصاد
گرایش علمی:
گاز
قالب اجرا:
پایان‌نامه صنعتی
کارفرما:
شرکت ملی گاز ایران
استاد راهنما:
نادر دشتی
استاد مشاور:
غلامرضا کشاورز حداد
دانشگاه:
دانشگاه صنعت نفت, دانشکده نفت تهران
مقطع تحصیلی:
پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد
سال دفاع:
۱۳۹۶
کلیدواژه‌ها:
Industrial production, Natural gas prices, Gross domestic product, Pooled Mean Group estimator, Generalized Methods of Moments
چکیده:
Nowadays, natural gas has wide use in industry sector. The industry sector with consumption of 25.6% of final natural gas consumption, is one of the most important parts of Iran’s gas consumption. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of natural gas prices on industrial production in Iran. The data used in this study is from period 1374 to 1392. We have used two techniques in order to evaluate the effects of changes in natural gas prices on industrial production and GDP. The first technique was Panel ARDL that is estimated by Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator.
The second technique was dynamic Panel data that is estimated by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The results of modeling in this research showed the long-run natural gas prices elasticity is positive and significant but in short-run, rising natural gas prices had a negative and significant effect on industrial production in Iran.
In other words, in short-run, one percent increase in natural gas prices causes eight hundredths percent decrease in industrial production. Also, energy-intensive industries which all together consumed nearly 88% of total consuming gas of manufacturing industries are affected more than other industries by changing in natural gas prices.
Finally, the results of GMM estimator showed rising in natural gas prices had a negative impact on GDP.
The second technique was dynamic Panel data that is estimated by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The results of modeling in this research showed the long-run natural gas prices elasticity is positive and significant but in short-run, rising natural gas prices had a negative and significant effect on industrial production in Iran.
In other words, in short-run, one percent increase in natural gas prices causes eight hundredths percent decrease in industrial production. Also, energy-intensive industries which all together consumed nearly 88% of total consuming gas of manufacturing industries are affected more than other industries by changing in natural gas prices.
Finally, the results of GMM estimator showed rising in natural gas prices had a negative impact on GDP.